[IRTheories-Level of Analysis] Jervis, Robert (1976) “Perceptions and the Level-of-Analysis Problem,”

[연구] Research 2014. 7. 10. 18:19



Perception and Misperception in International Politics

저자
Jervis, Robert, 지음
출판사
Princeton University Press | 1976-11-01 출간
카테고리
인문/사회
책소개
This book demonstrates that decisio...
가격비교 글쓴이 평점  

Jervis, Robert (1976) “Perceptions and the Level-of-Analysis Problem,” ch. 1, in Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton University Press.


Overview (Jervis)

Jervis’s renowned work Perception and Misperception in International Politics

-          Contrast to rational-choice

-          Contrast to “the traditional approach” discussed by Wolfers – “State-as-the-sole-actors approach”

-          Equivalent/Similar to Waltz’s First Image – focus on individual actors and their decision-making process

-          Main points

1.        Weaknesses of non-decision making level analysis:

1) international environment (external factor): “The environment may influence the general outline of the state’s policy but not its specific responses” (pg. 17); to test how changes in international environment alter behaviors is near impossible.

2) national/domestic determinants (internal): “If states of the same type behave in the same way, then changes in a state’s leadership will not produce significant changes in foreign policy, and we need not examine the images, values, and calculations of individual decision-makers. Unfortunately, claims about continuity in a state’s foreign policy are notoriously difficult to judge…” (pg. 22);

3) bureaucratic

2.        Decision-making approach and the perceptions and misperceptions of the world and how they diverge from reality in detectable patterns.

3.        Psychological analysis incorporated to view how decision-makers process information, and form, maintain, and change their beliefs about international relations and other actors.

4.        Presence of misperception undermine the real-world accuracy of game theoretical models

5.        (pg28) “it is often impossible to explain crucial decisions and policies without reference to the decision-makers’ beliefs and policies without reference to the decision-makers’ beliefs about the world and their images of others.” “…even if we found that people in the same situation – be it international, domestic, or bureaucratic – behave in the same way, it is useful to examine decision-making if there are constant differences between the decision-makers’ perceptions and reality” (Wolfers’ house on fire – circular logic back to decision makers)

-          Critique:

1.        Limits of psychological analysis

2.        Focus on misperception

3.        Difficulty in patternization – Theoretical rigorousness debatable

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